Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers

Abstract

This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.

Keywords: Economic forecasting, Economic growth, Economic models, Fiscal policy, Government expenditures, baseline regression, budget balance, discretionary fiscal stimulus, economic forecasting, fiscal accounts, fiscal adjustment, fiscal balance, fiscal balance in percent, fiscal consolidation, fiscal consolidation on growth, fiscal consolidations, fiscal expansion, fiscal multipliers, fiscal policy, fiscal shock, fiscal stimulus, forecasting, government expenditure, government expenditures, government revenue, government spending, growth forecast, growth forecasts, growth projections, output fluctuations, panel regressions, public expenditures, public finances, regression approach, regression coeffi

JEL Classification: E32, E62, H20, H50, H68