Do Countries Falsify Economic Data Strategically? Some Evidence that They Do

The Review of Economics and Statistics, Forthcoming

HEC Paris Research Paper No. 930/2010

60 Pages Posted: 9 Mar 2013

See all articles by Tomasz Kamil Michalski

Tomasz Kamil Michalski

HEC Paris - Economics & Decision Sciences

Gilles Stoltz

HEC Paris - Economics & Decision Sciences

Date Written: April 27, 2010

Abstract

We find evidence supporting the hypothesis that countries at times misreport their economic data in a strategic manner. Among those suspected are countries with fixed exchange rate regimes, high negative net foreign asset positions or negative current account balances, which corroborates the intuition developed with a simple economic model. We also find that countries with bad institutional quality rankings and those in Africa, Middle East, Eastern Europe and Latin America release economic data of questionable veracity. Our evidence calls for models with public signals to consider strategic misinformation and for establishing independent statistical agencies to assure the delivery of high quality economic data.

Keywords: capital flows, public information provision, misinformation, Benford's law, transparency

JEL Classification: F31, F32, F33, F34, D82

Suggested Citation

Michalski, Tomasz K. and Stoltz, Gilles, Do Countries Falsify Economic Data Strategically? Some Evidence that They Do (April 27, 2010). The Review of Economics and Statistics, Forthcoming; HEC Paris Research Paper No. 930/2010. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2229838 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2229838

Tomasz K. Michalski (Contact Author)

HEC Paris - Economics & Decision Sciences ( email )

Paris
France

Gilles Stoltz

HEC Paris - Economics & Decision Sciences ( email )

Paris
France

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
136
rank
206,888
Abstract Views
1,173
PlumX Metrics