Biofuels and Food Prices: Searching for the Causal Link

IEFE ‐ The Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy at Bocconi Universityb Working Paper No. 55

35 Pages Posted: 14 Mar 2013

See all articles by Andrea Bastianin

Andrea Bastianin

Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca - Department of Economics, Management and Statistics (DEMS); Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca - Center for European Studies (CefES)

Marzio Galeotti

University of Milan - Department of Environmental Science and Policy (DESP); Bocconi University - IEFE Centre for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy

Matteo Manera

University of Milan-Bicocca, Italy - Department of Economics, Management and Statistics (DEMS); Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan, Italy

Multiple version iconThere are 4 versions of this paper

Date Written: March 12, 2013

Abstract

We analyze the relationship between the prices of ethanol, agricultural commodities and livestock in Nebraska, the U.S. second largest ethanol producer. The paper focuses on long-run relations and Granger causality linkages between ethanol and the other commodities. The analysis takes possible structural breaks into account and uses a set of techniques that allow to draw inferences about the existence of long-run relations and of short-run in-sample Granger causality and out-of-sample predictive ability. Even after taking breaks into account, evidence that the price of ethanol drives the price dynamics of the other commodities is extremely weak. It is concluded that, on the basis of a formal, comprehensive and rigorous causality analysis we do not find evidence in favour of the Food versus Fuel debate.

Keywords: Ethanol, Field Crops, Granger Causality, Forecasting, Structural Breaks

JEL Classification: C22, C53, Q13, Q42, Q47

Suggested Citation

Bastianin, Andrea and Galeotti, Marzio and Manera, Matteo, Biofuels and Food Prices: Searching for the Causal Link (March 12, 2013). IEFE ‐ The Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy at Bocconi Universityb Working Paper No. 55. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2232054 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2232054

Andrea Bastianin

Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca - Department of Economics, Management and Statistics (DEMS) ( email )

Piazza dell'Ateneo Nuovo, 1
Milan, 20126
Italy

Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca - Center for European Studies (CefES)

U6 Building
Viale Piero e Alberto Pirelli, 22
Milano, 20126
Italy

Marzio Galeotti (Contact Author)

University of Milan - Department of Environmental Science and Policy (DESP) ( email )

2 via Celoria
I-20133 Milano
Italy
+39-2-50316470 (Phone)
+39-2-50316486 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.unimi.it/chiedove/cv/ENG/marzio_galeotti.pdf?1531977155891

Bocconi University - IEFE Centre for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy ( email )

via Rontgen
Milan, 20123
Italy
+39-2-58362340 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.iefe.unibocconi.it

Matteo Manera

University of Milan-Bicocca, Italy - Department of Economics, Management and Statistics (DEMS) ( email )

Via Bicocca degli Arcimboldi, 8
Milan, 20126
Italy
+39 02 6448 5819 (Phone)
+39 02 6448 5878 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.matteomanera.it

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan, Italy ( email )

Corso Magenta, 63
Milan, 20123
Italy
+39 02 520 36944 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.feem.it

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