Evaluation of Economically Optimal Retrofit Investment Options for Energy Savings in Buildings

FCN Working Paper No. 14/2011

30 Pages Posted: 21 Mar 2013

See all articles by Gürkan Kumbaroğlu

Gürkan Kumbaroğlu

Bogazici University

Reinhard Madlener

RWTH Aachen University; Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: September 2011

Abstract

In this study, a techno-economic evaluation methodology for energy retrofit of buildings is introduced, geared towards finding the economically optimal set of retrofit measures. Split incentives of building owners and users are considered explicitly in a conventional (static) evaluation to identify the investment alternatives maximizing the net present value (NPV). Energy price uncertainty for various distributional assumptions of the stochastic variables is addressed through Monte Carlo simulation. Results from the simulation are used to compute probabilities and expected NPVs. Based on this, a sequential (dynamic) evaluation methodology is developed, featuring a real options investment appraisal. The methodological advancements introduced are applied to an office building, illustrating the model’s performance. The case study results indicate that energy price changes significantly affect the profitability of retrofit investments, and that increased price volatility creates a substantial value of waiting, making it more rational to postpone the investment. Further insight is gained on various aspects of economic decision-making concerning energy retrofit of buildings.

Keywords: building energy efficiency, energy conservation, net present value, real options

Suggested Citation

Kumbaroğlu, Gürkan and Madlener, Reinhard, Evaluation of Economically Optimal Retrofit Investment Options for Energy Savings in Buildings (September 2011). FCN Working Paper No. 14/2011, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2236270 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2236270

Gürkan Kumbaroğlu (Contact Author)

Bogazici University

34342
Bebek, İstanbul 34342
Turkey

Reinhard Madlener

RWTH Aachen University ( email )

School of Business and Economics / E.ON ERC
Mathieustraße 10
Aachen, 52074
Germany
+49 241 80 49 820 (Phone)
+49 241 80 49 829 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.eonerc.rwth-aachen.de/fcn

Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) ( email )

Høgskoleringen
Trondheim NO-7491, 7491
Norway

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.ntnu.edu/employees/reinhard.madlener

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