Is There A Real Estate Bubble in Switzerland? (Diagnostic as of 2012-Q4)
17 Pages Posted: 22 Mar 2013
Date Written: March 21, 2013
We have analyzed the risks of possible development of bubbles in Switzerland’s residential real estate market. The data employed in this work has been collected by comparis.ch, and carefully cleaned from duplicate records through a procedure based on supervised machine learning methods. The study uses the log periodic power law (LPPL) bubble model to analyze the development of asking prices of residential properties in all Swiss districts between 2005 and 2013. The results suggest that there are 11 critical districts that exhibit signatures of bubbles, and seven districts where bubbles have already burst. Despite these strong signatures, it is argued that, based on the current economic environment, a soft landing rather than a severe crash is expected.
Keywords: real estate bubble, Switzerland, interest rates, positive feedbacks, log-periodic power law, Comparis, Internet, supervised machine learning
JEL Classification: C60, C80, G01
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