Characteristics of Cost Overruns for Dutch Transport Infrastructure Projects and the Importance of the Decision to Build and Project Phases

Transport Policy, vol. 22, pp. 49-56, DOI:10.1016/j.tranpol.2012.04.001

21 Pages Posted: 24 Mar 2013 Last revised: 24 Jan 2015

See all articles by Chantal Cantarelli

Chantal Cantarelli

University of Oxford - Said Business School

E.J.E. Molin

Delft University of Technology - Department of Transport and Logistics

Bert van Wee

Delft University of Technology

Bent Flyvbjerg

University of Oxford - Said Business School

Date Written: July 1, 2012

Abstract

Using a methodology similar to that used the in the worldwide research, the cost performance of Dutch large-scale transportation infrastructure projects is determined. In the Netherlands, cost overruns are as common as cost underruns but because cost overruns are larger than cost underruns project on average have a cost overrun of 16.5%. The focus on one country further enabled to consider cost overruns during different project development phases. It turned out that in the Netherlands the majority of the cost overrun occurs in the pre-construction phase (the period between the formal decision to build and the start of construction). The frequency as well as the magnitude of pre-construction cost overruns is significantly higher than in the construction phase. The used methodology of calculating cost overruns does however not take lock-in into account. This phenomenon shows the real decision to build was taken much earlier in the decision-making process. Since estimated costs are usually lower during these earlier stages, the cost overruns based on this real decision to build are likely to be much higher. Cost overruns presented in studies are therefore often underestimated and the problem of cost overruns is much larger than we think.

Keywords: Cost overruns, Transport, Infrastructure, Project phases, Netherlands

Suggested Citation

Cantarelli, Chantal and Molin, E.J.E. and van Wee, Bert and Flyvbjerg, Bent, Characteristics of Cost Overruns for Dutch Transport Infrastructure Projects and the Importance of the Decision to Build and Project Phases (July 1, 2012). Transport Policy, vol. 22, pp. 49-56, DOI:10.1016/j.tranpol.2012.04.001. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2237930

Chantal Cantarelli (Contact Author)

University of Oxford - Said Business School ( email )

Park End Street
Oxford, OX1 1HP
Great Britain

E.J.E. Molin

Delft University of Technology - Department of Transport and Logistics

Jaffalaan 5
NL-2628BX
Delft
Netherlands

Bert Van Wee

Delft University of Technology ( email )

Stevinweg 1
Stevinweg 1
Delft, 2628 CN
Netherlands

Bent Flyvbjerg

University of Oxford - Said Business School ( email )

Park End Street
Oxford, OX1 1HP
Great Britain

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