Lock-In and Its Influence on the Project Performance of Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Investigating the Way in Which Lock-In Can Emerge and Affect Cost Overruns

Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, vol. 37, no. 5, pp. 792-807

24 Pages Posted: 23 Mar 2013 Last revised: 20 Nov 2013

See all articles by Chantal C. Cantarelli

Chantal C. Cantarelli

University of Sheffield Management School

Bent Flyvbjerg

University of Oxford - Said Business School; IT University of Copenhagen; St Anne's College, University of Oxford

E.J.E. Molin

Delft University of Technology - Department of Transport and Logistics

Bert van Wee

Delft University of Technology

Date Written: May 1, 2010

Abstract

Lock-in, the escalating commitment of decision makers to an ineffective course of action, has the potential to explain the large cost overruns in large-scale transportation infrastructure projects. Lock-in can occur both at the decision-making level (before the decision to build) and at the project level (after the decision to build) and can influence the extent of overruns in two ways. The first involves the ‘methodology’ of calculating cost overruns according to the ‘formal decision to build’. Due to lock-in, however, the ‘real decision to build’ is made much earlier in the decision-making process and the costs estimated at that stage are often much lower than those that are estimated at a later stage in the decision-making process, thus increasing cost overruns. The second way that lock-in can affect cost overruns is through ‘practice’. Although decisions about the project (design and implementation) need to be made, lock-in can lead to inefficient decisions that involve higher costs. Sunk costs (in terms of both time and money), the need for justification, escalating commitment, and inflexibility and the closure of alternatives are indicators of lock-in. Two case studies, of the Betuweroute and the High Speed Link-South projects in the Netherlands, demonstrate the presence of lock-in and its influence on the extent of cost overruns at both the decision-making and project levels. This suggests that recognition of lock-in as an explanation for cost overruns contributes significantly to the understanding of the inadequate planning process of projects and allows development of more appropriate means.

Suggested Citation

Cantarelli, Chantal C. and Flyvbjerg, Bent and Molin, E.J.E. and van Wee, Bert, Lock-In and Its Influence on the Project Performance of Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Investigating the Way in Which Lock-In Can Emerge and Affect Cost Overruns (May 1, 2010). Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, vol. 37, no. 5, pp. 792-807, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2237935

Chantal C. Cantarelli

University of Sheffield Management School ( email )

9 Mappin Street
Sheffield, S1 4DT
United Kingdom

Bent Flyvbjerg (Contact Author)

University of Oxford - Said Business School ( email )

Oxford
Great Britain

IT University of Copenhagen ( email )

Copenhagen
Denmark

St Anne's College, University of Oxford ( email )

Oxford
United Kingdom

E.J.E. Molin

Delft University of Technology - Department of Transport and Logistics

Jaffalaan 5
NL-2628BX
Delft
Netherlands

Bert Van Wee

Delft University of Technology ( email )

Stevinweg 1
Stevinweg 1
Delft, 2628 CN
Netherlands

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