Delphi Forecasting for Shipping Industry and Technology: Performance and Validity

24 Pages Posted: 28 Mar 2013

See all articles by Okan Duru

Okan Duru

Texas A&M University at Galveston

Emrah Bulut

Yildiz Technical University

Shigeru Yoshida

Kobe University

Date Written: March 26, 2013

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the performance of the Delphi group consensus forecasting for the shipping industry and related technology. The Delphi method is the most popular technique for technological and long term forecasting. Based on the opinions of experts, Delphi is an aid in decision-making and it has been in existence for over half a century. The present research considers its performance and validity particularly in the area of the shipping industry. Three existing applications in this field are reviewed which have some improvements and drawbacks due to their objectives; the nature of subjects; and to their appropriateness, according to the recent developments of Delphi. These applications highlight how this technique may be adapted to increase validity in the future studies. Finally, there is a statement of a number of lessons learnt from the empirical studies, which may contribute to the successful outcome of a Delphi practice in the shipping industry.

Keywords: technology forecasting, Delphi group decision, shipping industry

Suggested Citation

Duru, Okan and Bulut, Emrah and Yoshida, Shigeru, Delphi Forecasting for Shipping Industry and Technology: Performance and Validity (March 26, 2013). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2239723 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2239723

Okan Duru (Contact Author)

Texas A&M University at Galveston ( email )

Langford Building A
798 Ross St.
College Station, TX 77843-3137
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.okanduru.com

Emrah Bulut

Yildiz Technical University ( email )

Davutpasa Mh., Esenler
Besiktas, Istanbul 80750
Turkey

Shigeru Yoshida

Kobe University ( email )

2-1, Rokkodai-cho, Nada-ku
Kobe, 657-8501, 657-8501
Japan

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
116
Abstract Views
835
rank
301,367
PlumX Metrics