Portfolio Choice, Liquidity Constraints and Stock Market Mean Reversion

49 Pages Posted: 18 Jul 2000

See all articles by Alexander Michaelides

Alexander Michaelides

Imperial College Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: June 13, 2002

Abstract

This paper solves numerically for the optimal consumption and portfolio choice of a long-horizon investor facing short-sales and borrowing constraints, undiversifiable labor income risk and a predictable time varying equity premium. The investor pursues aggressive market timing strategies; a speculative increase in savings arises when stock returns are expected to be high and conversely when future returns are expected to be low. Positive correlation between permanent earnings shocks and stock return innovations generates a substantial hedging demand for the riskless asset for risk averse investors. Hedging demands arising from the correlation of permanent earnings shocks and the factor innovation and from the correlation between the factor innovation and the stock market shock are evaluated and are found to be small in magnitude. Conversely, asset demand changes that arise from relaxing the liquidity constraints are substantial.

Keywords: Portfolio choice, liquidity constraints, buffer stock saving, stock market mean reversion, stock market predictability

JEL Classification: E21, G11

Suggested Citation

Michaelides, Alexander, Portfolio Choice, Liquidity Constraints and Stock Market Mean Reversion (June 13, 2002). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=223994 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.223994

Alexander Michaelides (Contact Author)

Imperial College Business School ( email )

South Kensington Campus
Exhibition Road
London SW7 2AZ, SW7 2AZ
United Kingdom

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
386
Abstract Views
1,963
rank
77,034
PlumX Metrics