Effects of Available Time on Confidence Following Choice

Poster Session, Society for Judgment and Decision Making Annual Meeting, 1997

23 Pages Posted: 28 Mar 2013

See all articles by Todd Davies

Todd Davies

Stanford University - Symbolic Systems Program; Center for the Study of Language and Information

Date Written: November 23, 1997

Abstract

This poster reports on three new experiments concerning the effect of the choice procedure, or "half-range method," of probability assessment, which forces the subject to make a binary choice between propositions prior to expressing a probability. These studies show that shortening the time available for assessment is sufficient to induce reduction in generic confidence following choice, compared to the "full-range method" of probability assessment in which no choice is made. When available time is sufficient, (a) choice may either enhance or reduce confidence, depending on subjects’ personal interest in the event in question and the salience of time availability; and (b) willingness to bet on one’s prediction (instead of on a matched chance lottery) is increased by the choice procedure for questions in which choice enhances confidence, and it is reduced by the choice procedure when choice reduces confidence, opposing a normative prediction.

Keywords: confidence, probability judgment, forced choice procedures, time pressure, elicitation methods

JEL Classification: D81

Suggested Citation

Davies, Todd R., Effects of Available Time on Confidence Following Choice (November 23, 1997). Poster Session, Society for Judgment and Decision Making Annual Meeting, 1997. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2240051 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2240051

Todd R. Davies (Contact Author)

Stanford University - Symbolic Systems Program ( email )

Stanford, CA 94305-2150
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.stanford.edu/~davies

Center for the Study of Language and Information ( email )

Stanford, CA 94305-4115
United States

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