Effects of Available Time on Confidence Following Choice
Poster Session, Society for Judgment and Decision Making Annual Meeting, 1997
23 Pages Posted: 28 Mar 2013
Date Written: November 23, 1997
This poster reports on three new experiments concerning the effect of the choice procedure, or "half-range method," of probability assessment, which forces the subject to make a binary choice between propositions prior to expressing a probability. These studies show that shortening the time available for assessment is sufficient to induce reduction in generic confidence following choice, compared to the "full-range method" of probability assessment in which no choice is made. When available time is sufficient, (a) choice may either enhance or reduce confidence, depending on subjects’ personal interest in the event in question and the salience of time availability; and (b) willingness to bet on one’s prediction (instead of on a matched chance lottery) is increased by the choice procedure for questions in which choice enhances confidence, and it is reduced by the choice procedure when choice reduces confidence, opposing a normative prediction.
Keywords: confidence, probability judgment, forced choice procedures, time pressure, elicitation methods
JEL Classification: D81
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation