To What Extent are Financial Crises Comparable and Thus Predictable?
Birkbeck College, University of London; European Business School London
October 16, 2012
This paper critically examines the quantitative approach to financial crises from two perspectives. First, the assumption of comparability of financial crises is analyzed. The key question here is: how comparable are crises? An important consideration here is the context – social and political. Second, if financial crises are comparable to a certain extent, then we should be able to make predictions. Thus, the second key question is: how predictable are crises? The results have implications for the development of a theory of financial crises and government policies on crisis management.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 23
Keywords: Financial crises, Crisis, Crisis Models, Crisis Management
JEL Classification: G01, G17, G18, H12
Date posted: March 29, 2013