The Economics of Political Transitions: Implications for the Arab Spring

14 Pages Posted: 30 Mar 2013

See all articles by Padamja Khandelwal

Padamja Khandelwal

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Policy Development and Review Department

Agustin Roitman

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date Written: March 2013

Abstract

Over the past two years, ongoing political transitions in many Arab countries have led to social unrest and an economic downturn. This paper examines comparable historical episodes of political instability to derive implications for the near- and medium-term economic outlook in the Arab countries in transition. In general, past episodes of political instability were characterized by a sharp deterioration in macroeconomic outcomes and a sluggish recovery over the medium term. Recent economic developments in the Arab countries in transition seem to be unfolding along similar lines, although the weak external environment and large fiscal vulnerabilities could result in a prolonged slump.

Keywords: Political economy, Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Economic conditions, Economic growth, Transition economies, Economic growth, political instability, Arab Countries in Transition, Arab Spring

JEL Classification: N15, O11, O53, P47

Suggested Citation

Khandelwal, Padamja and Roitman, Agustin, The Economics of Political Transitions: Implications for the Arab Spring (March 2013). IMF Working Paper No. 13/69. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2241917

Padamja Khandelwal (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Policy Development and Review Department ( email )

700 19th St. NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Agustin Roitman

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
120
Abstract Views
611
rank
242,039
PlumX Metrics