Estimating Default and Recovery Rate Correlations
Institute of Economic Studies (IES), Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Working Paper 03/2013
28 Pages Posted: 4 Apr 2013 Last revised: 24 May 2013
Date Written: February 11, 2013
The paper analyzes a two-factor credit risk model allowing to capture default and recovery rate variation, their mutual correlation, and dependence on various explanatory variables. At the same time, it allows computing analytically the unexpected credit loss. We propose and empirically implement estimation of the model based on aggregate and exposure level Moody’s default and recovery data. The results confirm existence of significantly positive default and recovery rate correlation. We empirically compare the unexpected loss estimates based on the reduced two-factor model with Monte Carlo simulation results, and with the current regulatory formula outputs. The results show a very good performance of the proposed analytical formula which could feasibly replace the current regulatory formula.
Keywords: credit risk, Basel II regulation, default rates, recovery rates, correlation
JEL Classification: G20, G28, C51
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation