Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss

38 Pages Posted: 19 Jul 2000

See all articles by Peter Christoffersen

Peter Christoffersen

University of Toronto - Rotman School of Management; Copenhagen Business School; Aarhus University - CREATES

Francis X. Diebold

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: October 1994

Abstract

Prediction problems involving asymmetric loss functions arise routinely in many fields, yet the theory of optimal prediction under asymmetric loss is not well developed. We study the optimal prediction problem under general loss structures and characterize the optimal predictor. We compute the optimal predictor analytically in two leading cases. Analytic solutions for the optimal predictor are not available in more complicated cases, so we develop numerical procedures for computing it. We illustrate the results by forecasting the GARCH(1,1) process which, although white noise, is non-trivially forecastable under asymmetric loss.

Suggested Citation

Christoffersen, Peter and Diebold, Francis X., Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss (October 1994). NBER Working Paper No. t0167. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=225125

Peter Christoffersen (Contact Author)

University of Toronto - Rotman School of Management ( email )

105 St. George Street
Toronto, Ontario M5S 3E6 M5P 3C4
Canada
416-946-5511 (Phone)

Copenhagen Business School

Solbjerg Plads 3
Frederiksberg C, DK - 2000
Denmark

Aarhus University - CREATES

School of Economics and Management
Building 1322, Bartholins Alle 10
DK-8000 Aarhus C
Denmark

Francis X. Diebold

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics ( email )

Ronald O. Perelman Center for Political Science
133 South 36th Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6297
United States
215-898-1507 (Phone)
215-573-4217 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.ssc.upenn.edu/~fdiebold/

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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