Forecast Evaluation and Combination

48 Pages Posted: 22 Jul 2000 Last revised: 13 Jul 2010

See all articles by Francis X. Diebold

Francis X. Diebold

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Jose A. Lopez

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Date Written: March 1996

Abstract

It is obvious that forecasts are of great importance and widely used in economics and finance. Quite simply, good forecasts lead to good decisions. The importance of forecast evaluation and combination techniques follows immediately -- forecast users naturally have a keen interest in monitoring and improving forecast performance. More generally, forecast evaluation figures prominently in many questions in empirical economics and finance. We provide selective account of forecast evaluation and combination methods. First we discuss evaluation of a single forecast, and in particular, evaluation of whether and how it may be improved. Second, we discuss the evaluation and comparison of the accuracy of competing forecasts. Third, we discuss whether and how a set of forecasts may be combined to produce a superior composite forecast. Fourth, we describe a number of forecast evaluation topics of particular relevance in economics and finance, including methods for evaluating direction-of-change forecasts, probability forecasts and volatility forecasts.

Suggested Citation

Diebold, Francis X. and Lopez, Jose Antonio, Forecast Evaluation and Combination (March 1996). NBER Working Paper No. t0192. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=225136

Francis X. Diebold (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics ( email )

Ronald O. Perelman Center for Political Science
133 South 36th Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6297
United States
215-898-1507 (Phone)
215-573-4217 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.ssc.upenn.edu/~fdiebold/

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Jose Antonio Lopez

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco ( email )

101 Market Street
San Francisco, CA 94105
United States
415-977-3894 (Phone)
415-974-2168 (Fax)

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