When Will the Millennium Development Goal on Infant Mortality Rate Be Realized? Projections for 21 OECD Countries Through 2050

International Journal of Data Analysis Techniques and Strategies, Vol. 10, No. 1, 2018

KDI School of Pub Policy & Management Paper

25 Pages Posted: 17 Apr 2013 Last revised: 7 Dec 2018

See all articles by Yu Sang Chang

Yu Sang Chang

Gachon University - College of Business and Economics

Jinsoo Lee

KDI School of Public Policy and Management

Hyuk Ju Kwon

KDI School of Public Policy and Management

Date Written: April 17, 2013

Abstract

Background: Reduction of under-five year mortality rate by two-thirds by 2015 compared to 1990 level has been adopted as Target 4A in the Millennium Development Goals. Since infant deaths account for over seventy percents of under-five year mortality, the same two-thirds reduction Target of infant mortality rate (IMR) will be a prerequisite for achieving the Target 4A.

Methods: We develop classical and kinked experience curve equations as our models to project IMR for 21 OECD countries for 2015 and 2050 We also use projected IMR by the UN and by the U.S. Census Bureau for comparison.

Findings: Our projection indicates that only two countries will meet the reduction goal by 2015. However, all but four countries will achieve the garget by 205'3 On the other hand, projections by UN and the U.S. Census are more pessimistic in that only seven or four countries are expected to meet the target by 2050.

Conclusion: We have demonstrated that the kinked experience curve model may be a useful alternative projection methodology. The results from all three projection methodologies suggest that each country may need a comprehensive review of its policy and programs of infant mortality control for major improvement.

Keywords: Child health, Health policy, Mortality

Suggested Citation

Chang, Yu Sang and Lee, Jinsoo and Kwon, Hyuk Ju, When Will the Millennium Development Goal on Infant Mortality Rate Be Realized? Projections for 21 OECD Countries Through 2050 (April 17, 2013). International Journal of Data Analysis Techniques and Strategies, Vol. 10, No. 1, 2018; KDI School of Pub Policy & Management Paper . Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2252404 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2252404

Yu Sang Chang (Contact Author)

Gachon University - College of Business and Economics ( email )

Korea

Jinsoo Lee

KDI School of Public Policy and Management ( email )

P.O. Box 184
Seoul, 130-868
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)
822-3299-1060 (Phone)
822-968-5072 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.kdischool.ac.kr

Hyuk Ju Kwon

KDI School of Public Policy and Management ( email )

Seoul
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

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