What Have Macroeconomists Learned About Business Cycles from the Study of Seasonal Cycles?

47 Pages Posted: 25 May 2006

See all articles by Jeffrey A. Miron

Jeffrey A. Miron

Harvard University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Joe Beaulieu

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve - Division of Research and Statistics - Industrial Output Section; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Date Written: September 1995

Abstract

This paper argues that analysis of seasonal fluctuations can shed light on the nature of business cycle fluctuations. The fundamental reason is that in many instances identifying restrictions about seasonal fluctuations are more believable than analogous restrictions about non-seasonal fluctuations. We show that seasonal fluctuations provide good examples of preference shifts and synergistic equilibria. We also find evidence against production smoothing and in favor of unmeasured variation in labor and capital utilization. In some industries capacity constraints appear to bind.

Suggested Citation

Miron, Jeffrey A. and Beaulieu, J. Joseph, What Have Macroeconomists Learned About Business Cycles from the Study of Seasonal Cycles? (September 1995). NBER Working Paper Series, Vol. w5258, pp. -, 1995. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=225322

Jeffrey A. Miron (Contact Author)

Harvard University - Department of Economics ( email )

Littauer Center
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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J. Joseph Beaulieu

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve - Division of Research and Statistics - Industrial Output Section

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Washington, DC 20551
United States
202-452-3819 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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