Macroeconomics Forecasts and Microeconomic Forecasters

37 Pages Posted: 25 Jul 2000

See all articles by Owen A. Lamont

Owen A. Lamont

Harvard University - Department of Economics

Date Written: October 1995

Abstract

In the presence of principal-agent problems, published macroeconomic forecasts by professional economists may not measure expectations. Forecasters may use their forecasts in order to manipulate beliefs about their ability. I test a cross-sectional implication of models of reputation and information-revelation. I find that as forecasters become older and more established, they produce more radical forecasts. Since these more radical forecasts are in general less accurate, ex post forecast accuracy grows significantly worse as forecasters become older and more established. These findings indicate that reputational factors are at work in professional macroeconomic forecasts.

Suggested Citation

Lamont, Owen A., Macroeconomics Forecasts and Microeconomic Forecasters (October 1995). NBER Working Paper No. w5284. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=225348

Owen A. Lamont (Contact Author)

Harvard University - Department of Economics ( email )

Littauer Center
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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