Speculating China Economic Growth Through Hong Kong? Evidence from the Stock Market IPO and Real Estate Markets

Abstract

This paper argues that since China closes her asset markets, investors turn to Hong Kong instead. The initial public offerings (IPO) of Chinese firms in the Hong Kong stock market and the local housing market of Hong Kong improve the prediction of each other, as they may serve as a coordinator of herds among investors. Alternative explanations such as the "production conjecture" and "underlying factor conjecture" are found to be inconsistent with the data. Our results are also consistent with the increasing importance of Chinese tourists in the world. Directions for future research are also discussed.

Keywords: Animal spirits conjecture, production conjecture, underlying factor conjecture, causality, wealth effect

JEL Classification: G10, R20, R33