Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices

51 Pages Posted: 20 Jul 2000 Last revised: 24 Sep 2010

See all articles by Yacine Ait-Sahalia

Yacine Ait-Sahalia

Princeton University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Andrew W. Lo

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: November 1995

Abstract

Implicit in the prices of traded financial assets are Arrow- Debreu state prices or, in the continuous-state case, the state-price density (SPD). We construct an estimator for the SPD implicit in option prices and derive an asymptotic sampling theory for this estimator to gauge its accuracy. The SPD estimator provides an arbitrage-free method of pricing new, more complex, or less liquid securities while capturing those features of the data that are most relevant from an asset-pricing perspective, e.g., negative skewness and excess kurtosis for asset returns, volatility 'smiles' for option prices. We perform Monte Carlo simulation experiments to show that the SPD estimator can be successfully extracted from option prices and we present an empirical application using S&P 500 index options.

Suggested Citation

Ait-Sahalia, Yacine and Lo, Andrew W., Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices (November 1995). NBER Working Paper No. w5351. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=225414

Yacine Ait-Sahalia (Contact Author)

Princeton University - Department of Economics ( email )

Fisher Hall
Princeton, NJ 08544
United States
609-258-4015 (Phone)
609-258-5398 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Andrew W. Lo

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management ( email )

100 Main Street
E62-618
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States
617-253-0920 (Phone)
781 891-9783 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://web.mit.edu/alo/www

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL)

Stata Center
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
129
Abstract Views
6,028
rank
222,262
PlumX Metrics