Business Cycle Synchronization between Euro Area and Central and Eastern European Countries
17 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2013
Date Written: May 2013
Abstract
We analyze the degree of co‐movements in real macroeconomic aggregates across selected euro area and Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries applying a multi‐factor model. Our results suggest that the evolution of the global European factor matches well the narrative of main economic events between 1995 and 2011, capturing among others the recession during the recent global financial and economic crisis. This factor plays a central role in explaining real output growth variability in euro area and is negligible in CEE countries. Furthermore, using Markov switching models and concordance indices, we shed light on an increase in business cycle synchronization, with the degree of concordance between country‐specific and European business cycles being high.
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?
Recommended Papers
-
Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification
By Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen
-
International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors
By M. Ayhan Kose, Chris Otrok, ...
-
Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics
By James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
-
Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization
By Jean M. Imbs
-
Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization
By Jean M. Imbs
-
Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization
By Jean M. Imbs
-
Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence
By Bent E. Sørensen, Sebnem Kalemli-ozcan, ...
-
Sectoral and National Aggregate Disturbances to Industrial Output in Seven European Countries