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How Long Does It Take to Recover from a Drawdown?

Marcos Lopez de Prado

Guggenheim Partners, LLC; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; Harvard University - RCC

April 21, 2013

* Investment management firms routinely hire and fire employees based on the performance of their portfolios.

* Such performance is evaluated through popular metrics that assume IID Normal returns, like Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, Treynor ratio, Information ratio, etc.

* Investment returns are far from IID Normal.

* Conclusion 1: Firms evaluating performance through Sharpe ratio are firing up to three times more skillful managers than originally targeted. This is very costly to firms and investors, and is a direct consequence of wrongly assuming that returns are IID Normal.

* Conclusion 2: An accurate performance evaluation methodology is worth a substantial portion of the fees paid to hedge funds. There is a 20% loss of the drawdown for every false positive. For a large firm, this amounts to tens of millions of dollars lost annually, as a result of wrongly assuming that returns are IID Normal.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 43

Keywords: drawdown, time under water, stop-out, triple penance, serial correlation, Sharpe ratio

JEL Classification: G0, G1, G2, G15, G24, E44

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Date posted: April 22, 2013 ; Last revised: June 29, 2014

Suggested Citation

Lopez de Prado, Marcos, How Long Does It Take to Recover from a Drawdown? (April 21, 2013). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2254668 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2254668

Contact Information

Marcos Lopez de Prado (Contact Author)
Guggenheim Partners, LLC ( email )
330 Madison Avenue
New York, NY 10017
United States
HOME PAGE: http://www.QuantResearch.org
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory ( email )
1 Cyclotron Road
Berkeley, CA 94720
United States
HOME PAGE: http://www.lbl.gov

Harvard University - RCC ( email )
26 Trowbridge Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
HOME PAGE: http://www.rcc.harvard.edu
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