Dynamic Modeling of the Product Life Cycle in the Commercial Mainframe Computer Market, 1968-1982

56 Pages Posted: 14 Jul 2000 Last revised: 6 Oct 2010

See all articles by Shane M. Greenstein

Shane M. Greenstein

Harvard University - Technology & Operations Management Unit; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

James B. Wade

University of Wisconsin - Madison - Department of Management and Human Resources

Date Written: August 1997

Abstract

This research investigates product life cycles in the commercial mainframe computer market. We show that empirical studies conducted at the product level are useful for investigating processes underlying product life cycles. We use hazard models with time-varying covariates to estimate the probability of product exit and Poisson models to estimate the probability of introduction. We measure the importance of different aspects of market structure, such as the degree of competitiveness, cannibalization, vintage, product niche and firm effects. We find some evidence of a relationship between the determinants of product exit and product entry.

Suggested Citation

Greenstein, Shane M. and Wade, James B., Dynamic Modeling of the Product Life Cycle in the Commercial Mainframe Computer Market, 1968-1982 (August 1997). NBER Working Paper No. w6124. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=225889

Shane M. Greenstein (Contact Author)

Harvard University - Technology & Operations Management Unit ( email )

Boston, MA 02163
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

James B. Wade

University of Wisconsin - Madison - Department of Management and Human Resources ( email )

Madison, WI
United States

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