A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading and Overreaction in Asset Markets

59 Pages Posted: 9 Jul 2000 Last revised: 14 Oct 2022

See all articles by Harrison G. Hong

Harrison G. Hong

Columbia University, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Jeremy C. Stein

Harvard University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: December 1997

Abstract

We assume that the instantaneous riskless rate reverts towards a central tendency which in turn, is changing stochastically over time. As a result, current short-term rates are not" sufficient to predict future short-term rates movements, as would be the case if the central" tendency was constant. However, since longer-maturity bond prices incorporate information" about the central tendency, longer-maturity bond yields can be used to predict future short-term" rate movements. We develop a two-factor model of the term-structure which implies that a" linear combination of any two rates can be used as a proxy for the central tendency. Based on" this central-tendency proxy, we estimate a model of the one-month rate which performs better" than models which assume the central tendency to be constant.

Suggested Citation

Hong, Harrison G. and Stein, Jeremy C., A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading and Overreaction in Asset Markets (December 1997). NBER Working Paper No. w6324, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=226078

Harrison G. Hong (Contact Author)

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Jeremy C. Stein

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