Predictable Changes in Yields and Forward Rates
46 Pages Posted: 17 Jul 2000 Last revised: 9 Apr 2010
Date Written: January 1998
We consider the patterns in the predictability of interest rates expectations hypothesis (EH), and attempt to account for them with affine models. We make the following points: (i) Discrepancies in the data from the EH take a particularly simple form with forward rates: as theory suggests, the largest discrepancies are at short maturities. (ii) Reasonable estimates of one-factor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross models imply regressions on the opposite side of the EH than we see in the data: regression slopes are greater than one (iii) Multifactore affine models can nevertheless approximate both departures from the EH and other properties of interest rates.
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