Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature

66 Pages Posted: 19 Jul 2000

See all articles by Robert P. Flood

Robert P. Flood

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department; CENTRUM Business School; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Nancy Peregrim Marion

Dartmouth College - Department of Economics

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: January 1998

Abstract

In the 1990s, currency crises in Europe, Mexico and Southeast Asia have drawn worldwide attention to speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates. To improve our understanding of these events, researchers have undertaken new theoretical and empirical work. In this paper, we provide some perspective on this work and relate it to earlier research in the area. Then we derive the optimal commitment to a fixed exchange rate and propose a common framework for analyzing currency crises that draws from both the early first-generation work and the more recent second-generation approach. The cross-generational framework stresses the important role of speculators and also recognizes that the government's commitment to a fixed exchange rate is constrained by other policy goals. In the final section we study the crisis prediction literature and find that some crises may be particularly difficult to predict using currently popular methods.

Suggested Citation

Flood, Robert P. and Marion, Nancy P., Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature (January 1998). NBER Working Paper No. w6380, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=226128

Robert P. Flood (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States
202-623-7667 (Phone)
202-623-6339 (Fax)

CENTRUM Business School

Daniel Alomía Robles s/n
Los Alamos de Monterrico
Surco, Lima, Lima 00001
Peru

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Nancy P. Marion

Dartmouth College - Department of Economics ( email )

Hanover, NH 03755
United States
(603) 646-2511 (Phone)

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