The Dynamic Effect of Social and Political Instability on Output: The Role of Reforms
42 Pages Posted: 11 May 2013
Date Written: April 2013
The aim of this paper is to analyze the dynamic effect of social and political instability on output. Using a panel of up to 183 countries from 1980 to 2010, the results of the paper suggest that social conflicts have a significant and negative impact on output in the short-term with the magnitude of the effect being a function of the intensity of political instability. The results also show that the recovery of output over the medium-term depends on the ability of the country to implement, in the aftermath of a social instability episode, reforms aimed at improving the level of governance. The results are robust to different checks and estimation strategies.
Keywords: Political economy, Fiscal reforms, Economic growth, Economic models, social conflicts, reforms, crisis, growth, governance, social instability, political instability, social conflict, governance indicator, governance indicators, governance reforms, guerrilla warfare, quality of governance, effect of governance, governance reform, measure of governance, levels of governance, worldwide governance indicators, governance data
JEL Classification: E29, J60, E32, D70
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation