Quantifying Wikipedia Usage Patterns Before Stock Market Moves

Scientific Reports, Vol. 3, pp. 1801; DOI:10.1038/srep01801 (2013)

5 Pages Posted: 13 May 2013

See all articles by Helen Susannah Moat

Helen Susannah Moat

University College London - Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering; Boston University - Center for Polymer Studies

Chester Curme

Boston University

Adam Avakian

Boston University

Dror Y. Kenett

Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA); Johns Hopkins University

H. Eugene Stanley

Boston University - Center for Polymer Studies

Tobias Preis

Data Science Lab, Behavioural Science, Warwick Business School; The Alan Turing Institute

Date Written: May 8, 2013

Abstract

Financial crises result from a catastrophic combination of actions. Vast stock market datasets offer us a window into some of the actions that have led to these crises. Here, we investigate whether data generated through Internet usage contain traces of attempts to gather information before trading decisions were taken. We present evidence in line with the intriguing suggestion that data on changes in how often financially related Wikipedia pages were viewed may have contained early signs of stock market moves. Our results suggest that online data may allow us to gain new insight into early information gathering stages of decision making.

Keywords: Big Data, Financial Markets, Predictive Analytics, Search Volume, Data Mining, Wikipedia, Computational Social Science, Digital Traces, Dow Jones Industrial Average

JEL Classification: A10, B40, C10, C20, C22, C53, C90, D70, D79, D83, J10, J11, O40, O47

Suggested Citation

Moat, Helen Susannah and Curme, Chester and Avakian, Adam and Kenett, Dror Y. and Stanley, H. Eugene and Preis, Tobias, Quantifying Wikipedia Usage Patterns Before Stock Market Moves (May 8, 2013). Scientific Reports, Vol. 3, pp. 1801; DOI:10.1038/srep01801 (2013). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2263897

Helen Susannah Moat

University College London - Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering ( email )

Gower Street
London, WC1E 6BT
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://www.suzymoat.co.uk

Boston University - Center for Polymer Studies ( email )

590 Commonwealth Avenue
Boston, MA 02215
United States

Chester Curme

Boston University ( email )

595 Commonwealth Avenue
Boston, MA 02215
United States

Adam Avakian

Boston University ( email )

595 Commonwealth Avenue
Boston, MA 02215
United States

Dror Y. Kenett

Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) ( email )

Washington, DC
United States

Johns Hopkins University ( email )

Baltimore, MD 20036-1984
United States

H. Eugene Stanley

Boston University - Center for Polymer Studies ( email )

Boston, MA 02215
United States

Tobias Preis (Contact Author)

Data Science Lab, Behavioural Science, Warwick Business School ( email )

University of Warwick
Coventry, CV4 7AL
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://www.tobiaspreis.com

The Alan Turing Institute ( email )

British Library, 96 Euston Road
London, NW12DB
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.turing.ac.uk

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