Industry Evolution and Transition: A Neoclassical Benchmark

47 Pages Posted: 12 Sep 2000

See all articles by Andrew Atkeson

Andrew Atkeson

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Patrick J. Kehoe

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis - Research Department; University of Minnesota - Twin Cities - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: April 1997

Abstract

Recently, a large number of countries have undertaken major reforms that have led to a large increase in the number of new enterprises. After these reforms, however, it has taken a number of years before output and productivity have begun to grow. The thesis of this paper is that the process of starting new enterprises is turbulent and time-consuming and as a result, it takes time before the benefits of reform show up in increases in measured output and productivity. To establish a neoclassical benchmark for reforming economies, we ask what the path of transition looks like in a reforming economy for which the process governing the growth of new enterprises looks like it does in the U.S., a well-functioning market economy. We find that it takes 5-7 years until measured output and productivity begin to grow rapidly following reform. This finding suggests that, even if all other aspects of the economy are perfect, the transition following economy-wide reforms should take a substantial amount of time.

Suggested Citation

Atkeson, Andrew G. and Kehoe, Patrick J., Industry Evolution and Transition: A Neoclassical Benchmark (April 1997). NBER Working Paper No. w6005. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=226416

Andrew G. Atkeson (Contact Author)

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Department of Economics ( email )

Box 951477
Los Angeles, CA 90095-1477
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
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Patrick J. Kehoe

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis - Research Department ( email )

90 Hennepin Avenue
Minneapolis, MN 55480
United States
612-204-5525 (Phone)
612-204-5515 (Fax)

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities - Department of Economics ( email )

271 19th Avenue South
Minneapolis, MN 55455
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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