Abstract

https://ssrn.com/abstract=2264848
 


 



Predicting the Incumbent Party Vote Share in U.S. Presidential Elections


Masoud Moghaddam


Saint Cloud State University

Hallie Elich


University of Minnesota

September 14, 2009

Cato Journal, Vol. 29, No. 3, 2009

Abstract:     
It is abundantly clear that economic, historical, and personal issues influence and form the basis for many swing voters’ decisions. Toward that end, in this article, we present a brief summary of the presidential election literature in the United States, describe the empirical model used to predict the 2008 presidential election, and discuss policy implications of the estimated model.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 14

Keywords: voting theory, election outcome prediction model, United States Presidential Election Outcomes

JEL Classification: D72


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Date posted: May 16, 2013  

Suggested Citation

Moghaddam, Masoud and Elich, Hallie, Predicting the Incumbent Party Vote Share in U.S. Presidential Elections (September 14, 2009). Cato Journal, Vol. 29, No. 3, 2009. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2264848

Contact Information

Masoud Moghaddam (Contact Author)
Saint Cloud State University ( email )
Saint Cloud, MN 56301
United States
Hallie Elich
University of Minnesota ( email )
Pharmaceutics
308 Harvard Street SE
Minneapolis, MN 55455
United States
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