14 Pages Posted: 16 May 2013
Date Written: September 14, 2009
It is abundantly clear that economic, historical, and personal issues influence and form the basis for many swing voters’ decisions. Toward that end, in this article, we present a brief summary of the presidential election literature in the United States, describe the empirical model used to predict the 2008 presidential election, and discuss policy implications of the estimated model.
Keywords: voting theory, election outcome prediction model, United States Presidential Election Outcomes
JEL Classification: D72
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Moghaddam, Masoud and Elich, Hallie, Predicting the Incumbent Party Vote Share in U.S. Presidential Elections (September 14, 2009). Cato Journal, Vol. 29, No. 3, 2009. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2264848