Predicting the Incumbent Party Vote Share in U.S. Presidential Elections

14 Pages Posted: 16 May 2013  

Masoud Moghaddam

Saint Cloud State University

Hallie Elich

University of Minnesota

Date Written: September 14, 2009

Abstract

It is abundantly clear that economic, historical, and personal issues influence and form the basis for many swing voters’ decisions. Toward that end, in this article, we present a brief summary of the presidential election literature in the United States, describe the empirical model used to predict the 2008 presidential election, and discuss policy implications of the estimated model.

Keywords: voting theory, election outcome prediction model, United States Presidential Election Outcomes

JEL Classification: D72

Suggested Citation

Moghaddam, Masoud and Elich, Hallie, Predicting the Incumbent Party Vote Share in U.S. Presidential Elections (September 14, 2009). Cato Journal, Vol. 29, No. 3, 2009. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2264848

Masoud Moghaddam (Contact Author)

Saint Cloud State University ( email )

Saint Cloud, MN 56301
United States

Hallie Elich

University of Minnesota ( email )

Pharmaceutics
308 Harvard Street SE
Minneapolis, MN 55455
United States

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