Trade Protectionism and Electoral Outcome

35 Pages Posted: 14 May 2013

See all articles by Miaojie Yu

Miaojie Yu

Peking University - China Center for Economic Research (CCER)

Date Written: September 14, 2009

Abstract

In this article, I estimate the impact of the Democratic tariff platform on its electoral outcome using congressional district data on election to the House of Representatives from the years 1982 to 1994. I control for many other financial, historical, and social factors that could affect the voting outcome. Aside from this, I also address the endogeneity issue using the instrumental variable (IV) approach. The estimation results clearly suggest three points. First, a higher Democratic tariff platform results in a higher Democratic vote share by increasing campaign contributions. Second, a higher tariff platform may also lead to a lower Democratic vote share due to the lost support from its decided non-ideological voters. These two findings are consistent with the theoretical predictions. Finally, the net effect of the Democratic tariff platform on its election outcome is shown to be significantly negative. Indeed, a high tariff platform cannot help the Democrats win more seats in House elections, though it does help them collect more campaign funding from protected industries and labor unions.

Keywords: trade policy and impact on congressional election outcomes, American tariffs and electoral politics

JEL Classification: F10, D72

Suggested Citation

Yu, Miaojie, Trade Protectionism and Electoral Outcome (September 14, 2009). Cato Journal, Vol. 29, No. 3, 2009. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2264859

Miaojie Yu (Contact Author)

Peking University - China Center for Economic Research (CCER) ( email )

Beijing, Beijing 100871
China
+86-10-6275-3109 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://mjyu.ccer.edu.cn

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