Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992 - 1994

49 Pages Posted: 25 May 2006

See all articles by Lars E. O. Svensson

Lars E. O. Svensson

Stockholm School of Economics; Stockholm University - Institute for International Economic Studies (IIES); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

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Date Written: September 1994

Abstract

The use of forward interest rates as a monetary policy indicator is demonstrated, using Sweden 1992-1994 as an example. The forward rates are interpreted as indicating market expectations of the time- path of future interest rates, future inflation rates, and future currency depreciation rates. They separate market expectations for the short, medium and long term more easily than the standard yield curve. Forward rates are estimated with an extended and more flexible version of Nelson and Siegel's functional form.

Suggested Citation

Svensson, Lars E.O., Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992 - 1994 (September 1994). NBER Working Paper No. w4871. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=226502

Lars E.O. Svensson (Contact Author)

Stockholm School of Economics ( email )

PO Box 6501
Stockholm, 11383
Sweden

HOME PAGE: http://larseosvensson.se

Stockholm University - Institute for International Economic Studies (IIES) ( email )

Stockholm, SE-10691
Sweden

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

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