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The Determinants of Recidivism among Ex-Prisoners: A Survival Analysis on French Data

GATE - Groupe d’Analyse et de Théorie Économique Lyon-St Étienne Working Paper No. WP 1320

21 Pages Posted: 16 May 2013  

Benjamin Monnery

University of Lyon 2 - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE)

Date Written: May 1, 2013

Abstract

This article explores the main determinants of the hazard of recidivism among ex-prisoners. We use a nationally-representative sample of prisoners released in 1996-1997 in France, drawn from a 5-year follow-up survey run by the French correctional administration. We estimate semiparametric duration models which deal with violations of the proportional hazards hypothesis. Our results confirm the importance of gender, age, nationality, access to employment and prior convictions on recidivism within five years after release from prison. We also find significant differences in hazards of recidivism by type of initial offense, penal status at entry, and type of release (early release under parole, etc.), while controlling for prison fixed effects. Finally, our study casts doubt on the influence of certain variables (marital status at entry, education, homelessness) and on the effectiveness of semi-liberte as a way to prevent recidivism.

Keywords: economics of crime, recidivism, duration models

JEL Classification: C41, K42

Suggested Citation

Monnery, Benjamin, The Determinants of Recidivism among Ex-Prisoners: A Survival Analysis on French Data (May 1, 2013). GATE - Groupe d’Analyse et de Théorie Économique Lyon-St Étienne Working Paper No. WP 1320. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2265349 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2265349

Benjamin Monnery (Contact Author)

University of Lyon 2 - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE) ( email )

93, chemin des Mouilles
Ecully, 69130
France

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