Eliciting Student Expectations of the Returns to Schooling

38 Pages Posted: 18 Aug 2000 Last revised: 29 Jun 2010

See all articles by Jeff Dominitz

Jeff Dominitz

Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management; RAND Corporation

Charles F. Manski

Northwestern University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: November 1994

Abstract

We report here on the design and first application of an interactive computer-administered personal interview (CAPI) survey eliciting from high school students and college undergraduates their expectations of the income they would earn if they were to complete different levels of schooling. We also elicit respondents' beliefs about current earnings distributions. Whereas a scattering of earlier studies have elicited point expectations of earnings unconditional on future schooling, we elicit subjective earnings distributions under alternative scenarios for future earnings. We find that respondents, even ones as young as high school sophomores, are willing and able to respond meaningfully to questions eliciting their earnings expectations in probabilistic form. Respondents vary considerably in their earnings expectations but there is a common belief that the returns to a college education are positive and that earnings rise between ages 30 and 40. There is a common belief that one's own future earnings are rather uncertain. Moreover, respondents tend to overestimate the current degree of earnings inequality in American society.

Suggested Citation

Dominitz, Jeff and Manski, Charles F., Eliciting Student Expectations of the Returns to Schooling (November 1994). NBER Working Paper No. w4936, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=226536

Jeff Dominitz

Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management ( email )

Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890
United States

RAND Corporation ( email )

1776 Main Street
P.O. Box 2138
Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138
United States

Charles F. Manski (Contact Author)

Northwestern University - Department of Economics ( email )

2003 Sheridan Road
Evanston, IL 60208
United States
847-491-8223 (Phone)
847-491-7001 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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