Assessing Policy Reforms for Italy using ITEM and QUESTIII

31 Pages Posted: 19 May 2013  

Barbara Annicchiarico

University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Department of Economics and Finance

Fabio Di Dio

Sogei S.p.a.

Francesco Felici

Government of the Italian Republic (Italy) - Ministry of Economy and Finance - Department of the Treasury

Francesco Nucci

University of Rome I

Date Written: May 17, 2013

Abstract

In this paper we assess the implications of policy reforms for the Italian economy by jointly using the Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM) and QUEST III, the endogenous growth dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model of the European Commission (DG ECFIN) in the version calibrated for Italy. We point out some of the key differences between the two models, highlighting some policy insights that DGE models can provide compared to those of traditional macro-econometric models. Their structural characteristics and the results of simulations are analyzed by using an array of shocks commonly examined in the evaluation of possible reforms. We show that two elements incorporated into the QUEST model play a key role in explaining the qualitative and quantitative differences among the two models in the dynamic responses to structural shifts, namely: the role of expectations in the transmission of reforms and the endogenous growth mechanism. We conclude that the joint consideration of the two models can improve our understanding of how the assessment of policy interventions is likely to be affected by the uncertainty surrounding model-based evaluation.

Keywords: Economic Modelling, DGE, Structural Reforms, Italy

JEL Classification: E10, C50, E60

Suggested Citation

Annicchiarico, Barbara and Di Dio, Fabio and Felici, Francesco and Nucci, Francesco, Assessing Policy Reforms for Italy using ITEM and QUESTIII (May 17, 2013). CEIS Working Paper No. 280. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2266396 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2266396

Barbara Annicchiarico (Contact Author)

University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Department of Economics and Finance ( email )

Rome, I-00133
Italy

Fabio Di Dio

Sogei S.p.a. ( email )

Via Mario Carucci n. 99 e 85
Roma, 00143
Italy
+39068544 9092 (Phone)

Francesco Felici

Government of the Italian Republic (Italy) - Ministry of Economy and Finance - Department of the Treasury ( email )

Via XX Settembre, 97
Rome, 00187
Italy
00390647614197 (Phone)

Francesco Nucci

University of Rome I ( email )

Piazzale Aldo Moro
Rome, 00185
Italy
+39 06 4991 0847 (Phone)
+39 06 445 3246 (Fax)

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