The Bank of England's Forecasting Platform: COMPASS, MAPS, EASE and the Suite of Models

Posted: 19 May 2013

See all articles by Stephen Burgess

Stephen Burgess

Bank of England

Emilio Fernández Corugedo

Bank of England

Charlotta Groth

Bank of England - Monetary Analysis

Richard Harrison

Bank of England - Monetary Analysis

Francesca Monti

Bank of England

Konstantinos Theodoridis

Cardiff University

Matt Waldron

Bank of England

Date Written: May 17, 2013

Abstract

This paper introduces the Bank of England's new forecasting platform and provides examples of how it can be applied to practical forecasting problems. The platform consists of four components: COMPASS, a structural central organising model; a suite of models, used to fill in the gaps in the economics of COMPASS and provide cross-checks on the forecast; MAPS, a macroeconomic modelling and projection toolkit; and EASE, a user interface. The platform has been in use since the end of 2011 in support of production of the projections produced for the Monetary Policy Committee’s quarterly Inflation Reports. In this paper we provide a full description of COMPASS, including discussion of its estimation and its properties. We also illustrate how the suite of models can be used to mitigate some of the trade-offs inherent in building a projection with a central organising model such as COMPASS, and discuss the role of the suite in addressing problems of model misspecification.

Keywords: forecasting, macro-modelling, misspecification

JEL Classification: E17, E20, E30, E40, E50

Suggested Citation

Burgess, Stephen and Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio and Groth, Charlotta and Harrison, Richard and Monti, Francesca and Theodoridis, Konstantinos and Waldron, Matt, The Bank of England's Forecasting Platform: COMPASS, MAPS, EASE and the Suite of Models (May 17, 2013). Bank of England Working Paper No. 471, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2266506 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2266506

Stephen Burgess

Bank of England

Threadneedle Street
London, EC2R 8AH
United Kingdom

Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo

Bank of England ( email )

Threadneedle Street
London, EC2R 8AH
United Kingdom

Charlotta Groth

Bank of England - Monetary Analysis ( email )

Threadneedle Street
London EC2R 8AH
United Kingdom

Richard Harrison

Bank of England - Monetary Analysis ( email )

Threadneedle Street
London EC2R 8AH
United Kingdom

Francesca Monti

Bank of England ( email )

Threadneedle Street
London, EC2R 8AH
United Kingdom

Konstantinos Theodoridis

Cardiff University ( email )

Aberconway Building
Colum Drive
Cardiff, Wales CF10 3EU
United Kingdom

Matt Waldron (Contact Author)

Bank of England

Threadneedle Street
London, EC2R 8AH
United Kingdom

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