Trade Structure and Transmission of Inflation: Theory and Japanese Experience

Abstract

The international price linkage in a single commodity model can be explained trivially by the law of one price or the quantity theory of money. In this paper, we formulate a simple sectoral, general equilibrium model with money. The transmission of price pressures from the world market to nontradable sectors of a domestic economy depends on industry structure, and the size of the direct price substitution effect and the indirect money and income effect through the balance of payments. The structural model is then empirically implemented for Japan, 1956-77. Various dynamic simulations conducted show both the overall magnitude of imported inflation and the relative importance of three major channels of transmission (price, money and income) in Japanese inflation during the period covered. These results imply that closing of one channel of transmission such as the monetary channel by a completely sterilizing monetary policy does not insulate the domestic economy from foreign price disturbances.