Where Do Betas Come from? Asset Price Dynamics and the Sources of Systematic Risk
40 Pages Posted: 27 Apr 2000 Last revised: 3 Jan 2002
Date Written: April 1993
This paper breaks assets' betas with common factors into components attributable to news about future cash flows, real interest rates, and excess returns. To achieve this decomposition the paper uses a vector autoregressive time-series model and an approximate log-linear present value relation. The betas of industry and size portfolios with the market are largely attributed to changing expected returns. Betas with inflation and industrial production reflect opposing cash flow and expected return effects. The paper also shows how asset pricing theory restricts the expected excess return components of betas.
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