A Markov Analysis of Per Capita State and Local Police Expenditures and the Allocation Problem of Federal Aid
Operational Research Quarterly, Vol. 28, No. 2, 1977
Posted: 31 May 2013
Date Written: July 19, 1977
A Markov chain model is applied to analyze changes in real annual state and local police expenditures in the United States, where transition probabilities are functions of crime, demographic and economic variables. Of these variables, the inflation rate for state and local government expenditures and federal aid to state and local governments are assumed controllable by public policies. Then a mathematical programming problem is formulated to allocate a fixed amount of federal aid among the North Central states, in which the competing objectives are to maximize the sum of the weighted probabilities so that real per capita police expenditures will be increased in each of the North Central states in the following year while holding the rate of inflation in the state and local government sector to the present rate.
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