Incentives for Eliciting Confidence Intervals
Posted: 30 May 2013
Date Written: May 28, 2013
Abstract
A natural way to obtain information about the concentration and dispersion of an expert’s beliefs is to ask for a confidence interval. Our objective is to design an elicitation mechanism that rewards the expert on the basis of the realized event and satisfies a set of desirable properties. We show that the existing mechanisms fail some of these properties, and formulate a new mechanism – the Truncated Interval Scoring Rule – that has all properties and is easily implementable in experimental work.
Keywords: Belief elicitation, scoring rules, subjective probabilities, confidence intervals
JEL Classification: C60, C91, D81
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Schlag, Karl H. and van der Weele, Joel J., Incentives for Eliciting Confidence Intervals (May 28, 2013). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2271061 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2271061
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