Incentives for Eliciting Confidence Intervals
Posted: 30 May 2013
Date Written: May 28, 2013
A natural way to obtain information about the concentration and dispersion of an expert’s beliefs is to ask for a confidence interval. Our objective is to design an elicitation mechanism that rewards the expert on the basis of the realized event and satisfies a set of desirable properties. We show that the existing mechanisms fail some of these properties, and formulate a new mechanism – the Truncated Interval Scoring Rule – that has all properties and is easily implementable in experimental work.
Keywords: Belief elicitation, scoring rules, subjective probabilities, confidence intervals
JEL Classification: C60, C91, D81
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation