Visualizing Probabilistic Proof

Guerra-Pujol, F. E.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2271870

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Visualizing Probabilistic Proof

Washington University Jurisprudence Review, vol. 7, no. 1, Forthcoming

37 Pages Posted: 30 May 2013 Last revised: 23 Oct 2014

See all articles by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Pontifical Catholic University of Puerto Rico; University of Central Florida

Date Written: October 22, 2014

Abstract

The author revisits the Blue Bus Case, a famous thought-experiment in law involving probabilistic proof, and presents simple Bayesian solutions to different versions of the blue bus problem. In addition, the author expresses his solutions in standard and visual formats, i.e. in terms of probabilities and natural frequencies.

Keywords: Bayes’ Rule, Blue Bus Case, Probabilistic Proof

JEL Classification: C11, K41

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Guerra-Pujol, F. E., Visualizing Probabilistic Proof (October 22, 2014). Washington University Jurisprudence Review, vol. 7, no. 1, Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2271870 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2271870