Ensuring Robust Flood Risk Management in Ho Chi Minh City

65 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by Robert Lempert

Robert Lempert

RAND Corporation - Santa Monica CA Offices; Rand Graduate School

Nidhi Kalra

RAND Corporation

Suzanne Peyraud

SCE (France)

Zhimin Mao

SCE (France)

Sinh Bach Tan

National Institute for Science and Technology Policy and Strategy Studies

Dean Cira

World Bank

Alexander Lotsch

World Bank

Date Written: May 1, 2013

Abstract

Ho Chi Minh City faces significant and growing flood risk. Recent risk reduction efforts may be insufficient as climate and socio-economic conditions diverge from projections made when those efforts were initially planned. This study demonstrates how robust decision making can help Ho Chi Minh City develop integrated flood risk management strategies in the face of such deep uncertainty. Robust decision making is an iterative, quantitative, decision support methodology designed to help policy makers identify strategies that are robust, that is, satisfying decision makers' objectives in many plausible futures, rather than being optimal in any single estimate of the future. This project used robust decision making to analyze flood risk management in Ho Chi Minh City's Nhieu Loc-Thi Nghe canal catchment area. It found that the soon-to-be-completed infrastructure may reduce risk in best estimates of future conditions, but it may not keep risk low in many other plausible futures. Thus, the infrastructure may not be sufficiently robust. The analysis further suggests that adaptation and retreat measures, particularly when used adaptively, can play an important role in reducing this risk. The study examines the conditions under which robust decision making concepts and full robust decision making analyses may prove useful in developing countries. It finds that planning efforts in developing countries should at minimum use models and data to evaluate their decisions under a wide range of conditions. Full robust decision making analyses can also augment existing planning efforts in numerous ways.

Keywords: Labor Policies, Non Bank Financial Institutions, Debt Markets, Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions, Hazard Risk Management

Suggested Citation

Lempert, Robert and Kalra, Nidhi and Peyraud, Suzanne and Mao, Zhimin and Tan, Sinh Bach and Cira, Dean and Lotsch, Alexander, Ensuring Robust Flood Risk Management in Ho Chi Minh City (May 1, 2013). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 6465, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2271955

Robert Lempert (Contact Author)

RAND Corporation - Santa Monica CA Offices ( email )

P.O. Box 2138
1776 Main Street
Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138
United States

Rand Graduate School

Santa Monica, CA 90407
United States

Nidhi Kalra

RAND Corporation ( email )

1776 Main Street
P.O. Box 2138
Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138
United States

Suzanne Peyraud

SCE (France)

243 avenue de Bruxelles
La Seyne Sur Mer, 83500
France

Zhimin Mao

SCE (France)

243 avenue de Bruxelles
La Seyne Sur Mer, 83500
France

Sinh Bach Tan

National Institute for Science and Technology Policy and Strategy Studies

Hanoi
Vietnam

Dean Cira

World Bank

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Alexander Lotsch

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

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