Critical Improvements in Oil Market Modeling

28 Pages Posted: 6 Jun 2013

See all articles by Michael Gucwa

Michael Gucwa

Stanford University - Huang Engineering Center

Ali Nouri

Stanford University - Huang Engineering Center

Hillard Huntington

Stanford University - Energy Modeling Forum

Saud Al-Fattah

Saudi Aramco; King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals (KFUPM)

Date Written: December 5, 2012

Abstract

The complexity of the world oil market has increased dramatically in recent years and new approaches are needed to understand, model, and forecast oil prices today. Many models have been explored and most of the papers and modeling projects referenced in this paper identify their own short-comings and opportunities for future improvements. The reason to choose those models is they have been largely used due to their quality and contribution to their targeted objectives. Rather, this paper will focus on what remains to be done despite of the quality of research reviewed. Considering the complexity of the oil market including the roles of market actors, technical and engineering challenges, environmental issues, and political interests, the modeling challenge would be difficult enough in static conditions. In fact, the oil market is a constantly evolving system requiring the development of new theories and methods to address the questions of the day. The spirit of this paper is to present constructive approaches for future work rather than to provide formal assessment of models on any particular metric.

Keywords: oil market analysis, modeling oil market, financial markets

JEL Classification: C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, C6, C7

Suggested Citation

Gucwa, Michael and Nouri, Ali and Huntington, Hillard and Al-Fattah, Saud, Critical Improvements in Oil Market Modeling (December 5, 2012). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2274547 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2274547

Michael Gucwa

Stanford University - Huang Engineering Center ( email )

475 Via Ortega
Stanford, CA 94305-4121
United States

Ali Nouri

Stanford University - Huang Engineering Center ( email )

475 Via Ortega
Stanford, CA 94305-4121
United States

Hillard Huntington

Stanford University - Energy Modeling Forum ( email )

475 Via Ortega
Stanford, CA 94305-4121
United States

Saud Al-Fattah (Contact Author)

Saudi Aramco ( email )

Dhahran, 31311
Saudi Arabia
00966504984090 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.saudalfattah.com

King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals (KFUPM) ( email )

Dhahran, 31311
Saudi Arabia
00966504984090 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.saudalfattah.com

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
56
Abstract Views
659
rank
398,221
PlumX Metrics