Benchmarking the Financial Sector in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries and Projecting 2030 Financial Sector Scenarios

Abstract

This paper aims at devising scenarios for the development of the financial system in the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs), for the 2030 horizon. The results of the simulations indicate that bank credit to the private sector, meta-efficiency and stock market turnover could reach at best 108%, 78% and 121%, respectively, if the SEMCs adopt the best practices in Europe. These scenarios are much higher than those of the present levels in the region but still lower than the best performers in Europe. More specifically, we find that improving the quality of institutions, increasing per capita GDP, opening further capital account and lowering inflation are needed to enable the financial system in the region to converge with those of Europe.

Keywords: Financial Sector, Southern and Eastern Mediterranean, SEMCs