Price Stability as a Target for Monetary Policy: Defining and Maintaining Price Stability

52 Pages Posted: 17 Jul 2000 Last revised: 20 Nov 2022

See all articles by Lars E. O. Svensson

Lars E. O. Svensson

Stockholm School of Economics; Stockholm University - Institute for International Economic Studies (IIES); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

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Date Written: August 1999

Abstract

This paper discusses how price stability can be defined and how price stability can be maintained in practice. Some lessons for the Eurosystem are also considered. With regard to defining price stability, the choice between price-level stability and low (including zero) inflation and the decisions about the price index, the quantitative target and the role of output stabilization are examined. With regard to maintaining price stability, three main alternatives are considered, namely a commitment to a simple instrument rule (like a Taylor rule), forecast targeting (like inflation-forecast targeting) and intermediate targeting (like money-growth targeting). A simple instrument rule does not provide a substitute for a systematic framework for monetary policy decisions. Such a framework is instead provided by forecast targeting. Forecast targeting can incorporate judgmental adjustments, extra-model information, and different indicators (including indicators of risks to price stability'). By extending mean forecast targeting to distribution forecast targeting, nonlinearity, nonadditive uncertainty and model uncertainty can be incorporated. Eurosystem arguments in favor of its money-growth indicator and against inflation-forecast targeting are scrutinized and found unconvincing.

Suggested Citation

Svensson, Lars E.O., Price Stability as a Target for Monetary Policy: Defining and Maintaining Price Stability (August 1999). NBER Working Paper No. w7276, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=227569

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