Are Risk-Seekers More Optimistic? Non-Parametric Approach

37 Pages Posted: 10 Jun 2013 Last revised: 20 Jul 2018

See all articles by Eyal Weinstock

Eyal Weinstock

College of Management Academic Studies (COMAS)

Doron Sonsino

Ben-Gurion University of the Negev; Center for Academic Studies

Date Written: May 30, 2013


Class and field surveys revealed that personal inclination to take structured lottery-risk significantly correlates with optimism in financial forecasting. Trait optimism reflects in return predictions for successful and problematic stocks, in likelihood assessments of specific events, and even when respondents recollect past realizations. Gain-domain risk preference shows the strongest predictive power for forecast positivity, even when macro expectations, win-chance optimism and personal attributes are controlled. The correlations are strongest when optimism scores are derived from multiple prediction tasks, but quickly dissolve when subjects receive usable anchors. The findings are discussed in light of optimism scope and recent research on ambiguity aversion.

Keywords: optimism, risk-preference, anchoring, ambiguity aversion

JEL Classification: D8, C9

Suggested Citation

Weinstock, Eyal and Sonsino, Doron and Sonsino, Doron, Are Risk-Seekers More Optimistic? Non-Parametric Approach (May 30, 2013). Available at SSRN: or

Eyal Weinstock

College of Management Academic Studies (COMAS) ( email )

7 Rabin Blvd.
Rishon Lezion
Tel Aviv, 75190

Doron Sonsino (Contact Author)

Ben-Gurion University of the Negev ( email )

1 Ben-Gurion Blvd
Beer-Sheba 84105, 84105

Center for Academic Studies ( email )

Ha-Yotsrim 2
Or Yehuda, 6021816

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