Underskattade kostnader i infrastrukturprojekt: felräkning eller lögn? (Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?)

Plan, Vol. 58, No. 4, pp. 8-11.

4 Pages Posted: 18 Jun 2013 Last revised: 4 Oct 2013

See all articles by Bent Flyvbjerg

Bent Flyvbjerg

University of Oxford - Said Business School

Søren Buhl

Aalborg University

Mette Holm

Aalborg Municipality

Date Written: 2004

Abstract

The English version of this article can be found at: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2278415

Die deutsche Version dieses Artikels finden Sie unter: http://www.ssrn.com/abstract=2278383

La versione italiana di questo documento è disponibile al seguente link: http://www.ssrn.com/abstract=2278294

I den här artikeln presenterar vi resultat från den första statistiskt säkerställda studien av kostnadsökningar i infrastrukturprojekt. Datainsamlingen pågick under fyra år och omfattar ett stort antal infrastrukturprojekt som slutförts mellan 1928 och 1998. Sammanlagt analyserade vi 258 projekt i 20 länder i 5 världsdelar, en projektportfölj värd 90 miljarder USD. För vart och ett av projekten har de verkliga konstruktionskostnaderna jämförts med de beräknade kostnaderna – det vill säga budgeterade eller prognoserade kostnader vid tidpunkten för beslut om projektet. Kostnaderna kalkyleras i fasta priser i Euro.

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth US$90 billion and representing different project types, geographical regions, and historical periods, it is found with overwhelming statistical significance that the cost estimates used to decide whether such projects should be built are highly and systematically misleading. Underestimation cannot be explained by error and is best explained by strategic misrepresentation, that is, lying. The policy implications are clear: legislators, administrators, investors, media representatives, and members of the public who value honest numbers should not trust cost estimates and cost-benefit analyses produced by project promoters and their analysts.

Swedish translation by the publisher. Listed as "Most Cited" article on the journal's home page.

Note: Downloadable document is in Swedish.

Suggested Citation

Flyvbjerg, Bent and Buhl, Søren and Holm, Mette, Underskattade kostnader i infrastrukturprojekt: felräkning eller lögn? (Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?) (2004). Plan, Vol. 58, No. 4, pp. 8-11. . Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2278382

Bent Flyvbjerg (Contact Author)

University of Oxford - Said Business School ( email )

Park End Street
Oxford, OX1 1HP
Great Britain

Søren Buhl

Aalborg University ( email )

Fredrik Bajers Vej 7E
Aalborg, DK-9220
Denmark

Mette Holm

Aalborg Municipality

Aalborg
Denmark

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