The Transition Economies after Ten Years

44 Pages Posted: 21 May 2000 Last revised: 12 Mar 2010

See all articles by Stanley Fischer

Stanley Fischer

Bank of Israel; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Ratna Sahay

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Date Written: April 2000

Abstract

While output declined in virtually all transition economies in the initial years, the speed and extent of the recovery that followed has varied widely across these countries. The contrast between the more and less successful transitions, the latter largely in the former Soviet Union, raises many questions about the relative roles played by adverse initial conditions, external factors, and reform strategies. This paper summarizes the macroeconomic performance of the transition economies. We first review the initial conditions confronting these economies, the reform strategy that was proposed, and the associated controversies that arose a decade ago. We then account for the widely different outcomes, highlighting the role of exogenous factors and the macroeconomic and structural policies adopted by the countries. We find that both stabilization policies and structural reforms, particularly privatization, contributed to the growth recovery. We also conclude that the faster is the speed of reforms, the quicker is the recovery and the higher is growth.

Suggested Citation

Fischer, Stanley and Sahay, Ratna, The Transition Economies after Ten Years (April 2000). NBER Working Paper No. w7664, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=228138

Stanley Fischer (Contact Author)

Bank of Israel ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

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Ratna Sahay

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Developing Country Studies Division ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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