Determinants of Land Use Changes: A Spatial Multinomial Probit Approach

Abstract

We propose a spatial multinomial probit model to examine the determinants of land use change, at the parcel level, in the French Département du Rhones from 1992 to 2003. It is based on an economic model that assumes that landowners have a choice between four land use categories for a given parcel at a given date: (1) agricultural, (2) forest, (3) urban, and (4) no use. We estimate a model that allows for both covariates and spatial dependence, and we use these features to explore the relative importance of factors that drive landowners to choose a specific land use category.

Keywords: Land use, multinomial probit, spatial correlation, Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo

JEL Classification: C11, C31, C35, R14