Trend-Casting in the Interactive Digital Media Industry: Some Results and Guidelines

Abstract

In this practice article, we present the results of a scenario planning approach that is a hybrid of the three main schools of thought. Our research objective was to study the future of Interactive Digital Media applications such as online music, on-demand television and massively multi-player online role-playing games. Our approach, while essentially qualitative in nature, nevertheless draws from the rigors of the quantitative school in identifying and then tracking the significant dimensions of analysis that emerge over time as strands of events leading to plausible scenarios. Our empirical analysis revealed mapping strands to three themes – ownership, distribution and innovation – which we used in an expert validation exercise to formulate scenarios. We present and discuss the major findings and implications of this empirical investigation. In a nutshell, we conjecture that an open, competitive IDM marketplace with performance safeguards may serve both and lead to a win-win scenario. While there are differences among IDM sectors, a unified approach to regulation and policy would be effective.

Keywords: Digital media technology, strategic industry analysis, digital economy